Goodbye Guantánamo by Robert Guest

But it won't be the end of the mess

The prison at Guantánamo Bay will be closed in 2009. But anyone who thinks that this will also close an ugly chapter in American history will be disappointed. Loading the prisoners onto planes will be easy. Figuring out what to do with them next will be anything but.

APThe end is in sight

The inmates of Guantánamo exist in a legal black hole. The camp is on a slice of Cuban territory, leased by the American government. George Bush put them there specifically so that they would be beyond the reach of the American legal system—although the Supreme Court ruled in 2008 that, at least as far as habeas corpus suits are concerned, they are not. Still, many have been held for years without a proper trial.

As American forces toppled the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, they rounded up suspected followers of Osama bin Laden. Many were undoubtedly jihadists. But some were innocent bystanders, often sold by local ruffians for a bounty. Hundreds were shipped to Guantánamo.

About 250 prisoners are still there (from a peak of some 700). They can be divided into three groups. First are those against whom there is enough evidence to press war-crimes charges. Between 60 and 80 of these may face military tribunals.

The next group, of about 50 inmates, consists of those who have been cleared for release but cannot be sent home. This may be for fear that they will be mistreated. More than a dozen Muslim separatists from China are to be released; they pose no threat to America but can expect rough justice if repatriated. In other cases, the Pentagon will not repatriate men to countries whose governments it does not trust to keep an eye on them, such as Yemen. Finally, there are more than 100 inmates who are considered too risky to release, but against whom there is not enough evidence to prosecute them.

In 2009 all the inmates at Guantánamo will be moved somewhere else. The knottiest problem will be what to do with those who cannot be prosecuted but cannot sensibly be freed—and are still dangerous. Mr Bush asserted a right to hold them indefinitely. Barack Obama will work with Congress to devise a fairer set of rules, but he will be reluctant to free those who openly threaten Americans.

This will be a moral minefield. Make it easy to detain suspected terrorists in the future, and you lock up innocents. Make it hard, and you create perverse incentives: soldiers will be loth to let their enemies surrender. Congress and the president have a problem.

Fonte: http://www.economist.com